This evening, President Obama is sure to reflect on the goal he set in his State of the Union address two years ago to double U.S. exports within five years.

The goal, which had been proposed five months earlier by U.S. Chamber President Tom Donohue, makes sense because it focuses attention across the federal government on the urgent task of eliminating the barriers that too often shut U.S. exports out of overseas markets.

We’ve made some progress. For instance, last October, Congress approved new market-opening trade agreements with Korea, Colombia, and Panama.

But with two of these five years already behind us, how are we doing? While we only have 11 months of 2011 trade data, some trends stand out:

• Doubling Exports: U.S. exports of goods and services rose by 16.6% in 2010 and 15% in the first 11 months of 2011, a pace that -- if continued -- will allow the United States to double exports by the end of 2014. However, 2009 was a low bar, as global trade had collapsed in the wake of the financial crisis. The European sovereign debt crisis and slowing growth in several big emerging markets will make maintaining this pace of export growth more challenging over the next three years.
• The Rise of the Rest: As recently as two decades ago, a vast majority of U.S. trade was with the “triad” of Europe, Canada, and Japan. No longer. For the first time in years, developing countries purchased a clear majority (53%) of U.S. goods exports in 2010, led by a boom in sales to East Asia and the Americas. That share rose to 56% in 2011.
• Americas First: Canada again edged out the EU as the top market for U.S. exports in the first 11 months of 2011, and the Americas purchased 43.8% of U.S. exports — well ahead of East Asia (24.8%) and Europe (22.2%). Canada and Mexico together accounted for just under a third of the rise in U.S. exports over the past two years. As Ed Gresser at ProgressiveEconomy points out, the $55 billion in extra sales to Mexico alone is identical to the $55 billion in growth to the famous BRIC giants --Brazil, Russia, India, and China -- combined.
• Transatlantic Ties Still Bind: As a single market, the EU remains America’s top trading partner (combining exports and imports), particularly when services are included. However, Europe’s share of U.S. goods exports has fallen by about 3% in the past two years (East Asia gained 1% and the Americas gained 2%).
• Most Imports from Middle Kingdom: China reaffirmed its position as the top source of U.S. goods imports in 2011, and it ranks third as a national market for U.S. goods exports (after Canada and Mexico). When the December numbers are in, U.S. exports to China will top $100 billion in 2011 for the first time.
• FTAs Make Big Markets: America’s 17 FTA partners purchased about 41% of U.S. goods exports in 2011 and are the source of about 31% of U.S. goods imports. This is a remarkable performance given that these countries represent less than 10% of global GDP outside the United States. Korea and Colombia are both among the top 15 U.S. export destinations -- so implementing the pending FTAs with these countries, and with booming Panama, will accelerate the already strong growth in U.S. exports to these countries.
• Trade Deficit Isn’t Caused by FTAs… For the past four years, the United States has run a trade surplus in manufactured goods with its 17 FTA partners -- taken as a group -- on top of large global trade surpluses in services and agricultural products. When the December figures come out, that surplus is expected to top $45 billion in 2011 -- double its 2010 level.
• … As Much As Energy Imports: U.S. net imports of petroleum and related products rose sharply to surpass $300 billion in 2011 -- a sum equivalent to nearly half the U.S. trade deficit. Given today’s soaring oil prices, look for more of the same in 2012. The trade numbers are one more good reason to develop our extensive domestic energy resources.