Below are the responses to our March Quick Poll.

1) What part of the health care law do you find most burdensome?
1099 mandate   51.8%
Employer mandate  14.6
New rules for FSAs and HSAs 16.8
Higher taxes   16.8

2) Would you be more likely to export if U.S. goods received the same treatment as foreign competitors’ goods and if you were guaranteed export financing?
Yes  48.4%
No  44.8
Already export 6.8

Your voice counts. Respond to the following four questions and receive instant results.

Your voice counts. Respond to the following four questions and receive instant results.

Below are the responses to our February Quick Poll.

1. Would you support a tax increase, if combined with spending cuts, to reduce the budget deficit and national debt?
Yes   38.7%
No   61.3

2. Would you support an increase in the federal gas and diesel tax if the proceeds were dedicated to investment in roads, highways, and public transportation?
Yes   40.3%
No   59.7

Dr. Martin Regalia
Senior Vice President and Chief Economist,
Economic Policy
U.S. Chamber of Commerce

1. Would you support a tax increase, if combined with spending cuts, to reduce the budget deficit and national debt?
Yes   38.7%
No   61.3%

2. Would you support an increase in the federal gas and diesel tax if the proceeds were dedicated to investment in roads, highways, and public transportation?
Yes   40.3%
No   59.7%

3. Do you plan to make capital investments in your business in 2011 because of the one-year 100% bonus depreciation?
Yes   34%
No   66%

Your voice counts. Give us your opinion by responding to the following questions.

How has the sluggish economy impacted your pricing?
Raised prices over the past 6 months   15.6%
Lowered prices   39.3
Kept prices the same   45.1

Dr. Martin Regalia
Senior Vice President and Chief Economist,
Economic Policy
U.S. Chamber of Commerce

We need to have more ordinary people in Washington and fewer lawyers. And we need term limits. The politicians should have to debate on TV, on our tax dollar, and have so much to spend and no more. The way campaigns are run these days, we have accusations following slander following accusations. No one talks of solutions. They speak in sound bites full of sound and fury and signifying nothing.
—Barbara Beitel, Cape May Court House, NJ

Your voice counts. Respond to the following four questions and receive instant results.

"There is a potential here for some bipartisan movement."
—U.S. Chamber Executive Vice President for Government Affairs Bruce Josten commenting on the new Congress to Bloomberg, November 3, 2010

Your voice counts. Respond to the following four questions and receive instant results.

1. How confident are you that your business will pick up in the next six months?
Not at all confident: 61.4%
Somewhat confident: 27.6
Very confident: 11.0

2. What are your plans over the next six months regarding your employees?
Lay off employees -- 13.1%
Reduce some employees’ hours: 24.1
Maintain the current number of employees and their hours: 51.8
Hire new employees: 11.0

I  think I’ll pass on this movie. I’m in agreement that the educational system needs reform, but I’d have a hard time taking anything seriously that was produced by the same group that produced “An Inconvenient Truth.” It has a solid liberal bias, and I expect the new movie to be the same.
—Greg Brainerd, Livingston, MT

When we knock down barriers in [overseas] markets, we create jobs here. We’ve got to trade to create jobs in our country.
—Myron Brilliant, Chamber Senior Vice President of International Affairs, quoted in The Wall Street Journal, October 4, 2010

Dr. Martin Regalia
Senior Vice President and Chief Economist,
Economic Policy
U.S. Chamber of Commerce

Dr. Martin Regalia
Senior Vice President and Chief Economist,
Economic Policy
U.S. Chamber of Commerce

Regulation

Each additional regulation issued gives the government more power over business, and business is subject to more paperwork, fines, and fees. More regulation only hampers business and gives power and control to the government. A business owner knows what’s best for his business, and politicians only want power over those whom they supposedly serve.
—Alan Chen, San Gabriel, CA

Your voice counts. Respond to the following four questions and receive instant results.

1 Do you intend to vote in the November midterm elections?
Yes   99.5%
No   0.2%
Maybe   0.3%

2 What issue will be the biggest factor in determining how you vote?
Government spending    47.1%
Unemployment rate/overall health of the economy   39.7%
Energy and the environment   3.5%
National security   2.2%
Social issues   2.9%
Other    4.6%

"The bottom line is, they've still got juice. They still have major influence on Capitol Hill."
--Jim Manley, spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), discussing the U.S. Chamber in The Washington Post, July 22, 2010
 
Chamber President Tom Donohue told a mix of small business owners and lobbyists that 'we risk moving this country away from a government of the people to a government of regulators.'
--The Wall Street Journal reporting on the Chamber's Jobs Summit, July 14, 2010

Readers Offer Ideas for Job Growth

We asked Free Enterprise Weekly subscribers to tell us what they think government should do to help create jobs. Here’s what some of them said.

Dr. Martin Regalia
Senior Vice President and Chief Economist,
Economic Policy
U.S. Chamber of Commerce

Value Added Tax

We left Canada in the 1990s when it implemented a VAT, called GST for Goods and Services Tax. In my opinion, if you want to see a mass exodus of manufacturers, professionals, etc., to other countries, advocate for a VAT. I never thought that I would see the United States in this situation!
—C. Oliver, Murrieta, CA

"Guns for all, free speech for some."
--The Chamber's Bruce Josten quoted in The New York Times on the National Rifle Association's exemption from legislation limiting political free speech, June 18, 2010

Your voice counts—give us your thoughts about the upcoming elections.

Dr. Martin Regalia
Senior Vice President and Chief Economist,
Economic Policy
U.S. Chamber of Commerce

Job Creation

I watched the [Chamber’s Governors Summit] on C-SPAN and can’t tell you how impressed I was with the discussion content. I have downloaded the Enterprising States study and shared it with several key members of our community. I am chairman of Centralina Workforce Development, and the content of this document will be discussed at our upcoming retreat. The study is a must read for those of us who are interested in creating jobs in our community.
—Bob VanGorden, Concord/Charlotte, NC

"U.S. Chamber of Commerce President Tom Donohue has a clear message for Big Labor: Stop getting in the way of U.S. trade expansion and costing the country jobs."
--Politico, May 17, 2010

"It is a job-protection bill for incumbent lawmakers in Washington."
--The Chamber's Bruce Josten on legislation to limit corporate free speech in elections, quoted in The Hill, May 26, 2010

1. Do you use social media (e.g., Twitter, Facebook, blogs) in your business?
Yes, regularly   22.6%
Yes, but not very often   22.2%
No   55.2%

2. How well do you understand the new health care law?
Have a good grasp of it   11.2%
Know enough to be comfortable   22.1%
Know very little   57.4%
Don’t have a clue   9.3%

"The Chamber is helping lead the charge in finding a solution to our nation’s challenge of creating jobs and revitalizing the economy."
--Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R-MN), Dow Jones Newswire, May 3, 2010

"Chamber of Commerce President Tom Donohue called it 'nothing more than a brazen attempt to tilt the playing field in favor of the incumbent party in this fall's elections.' "
--Investor's Business Daily, on the Van Hollen-Schumer campaign finance bill, May 4, 2010

Energy

[The Chamber’s] positions seem reasonable with the exception of the global warming issue. Most scientists agree we have a problem, so let’s address this for the long term instead of wasting funds fighting the inevitable.
—Ray Heffron, Santa Rosa Beach, FL

Your voice counts—tell us how you use social media to promote your business.

Dr. Martin Regalia
Senior Vice President and Chief Economist
Economic Policy
U.S. Chamber of Commerce

Lately, you can’t open a newspaper without seeing a story on the value added tax (VAT). Newspapers write, “Will the VAT Lady Sing?” and “Value Added Tax: Will It Solve Our Budget Woes?”

"Small businesses are also concerned that the agency would have unchecked authority to write its own rules without oversight ...
--David Hirschmann, president and CEO, U.S. Chamber Center for Capital Markets Competitiveness, on the proposed CFPA, in an April 10, 2010, New York Times letter to the editor

"The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and its pugilistic president, Tom Donohue, fought hard to defeat the health care law ... many business lobbyists applaud their gargantuan efforts."
--National Journal, March 25, 2010

Dr. Martin Regalia
Senior Vice President and Chief Economist
Economic Policy
U.S. Chamber of Commerce

Health Care

I have been a successful business owner for 30 years, and I can tell you without doubt that this bill will kill businesses, which will kill jobs, which will kill your big-money people who you are relying on to pay for a huge portion of this bill, etc., etc. It will be a chain reaction that will ultimately bankrupt the country— it’s basic economics and Mathematics 101.
—Mike Kelsey, Northridge, CA

1. Which of the following is the biggest challenge to your business?
High taxes   31.9%
Burdensome regulations   27.1
Health care affordability   21.7
Other   19.3

2. Are you satisfied with the outcome of health care reform in Washington?
No   87.0%
Yes   11.8
No opinion   1.2

3. Do you think Congress is moving in the right direction on financial regulatory reform?
No   82.4%
Yes   11.9
No opinion   5.7

"By making job creation the rhetorical centerpiece of its campaign [for free enterprise] last fall, the Chamber was quicker than other business groups, and faster than the Obama administration, to try to tap the political potency of the unemployment issue."
--National Journal, February 20, 2010

"The Chamber is certainly better positioned than ever to be a major force on the issues and elections it focuses on each year."
--Los Angeles Times, March 9, 2010

Financial Regulatory Reform

Enough already! Let’s get the principals together and have a good old-fashioned debate on the Consumer Financial Protection Agency.
Pat Callahan, Front Royal, VA

Some firewalls might be a good idea, along with some tighter capital requirements. However, we do not need another bureaucracy like the proposed CFPA. This sounds just like another scheme to grab more power and control over business owners.
Jay Stanford, Missoula, MT

Your voice counts—tell us how economic conditions are affecting your business.

Dr. Martin Regalia
Senior Vice President and Chief Economist,
Economic Policy
U.S. Chamber of Commerce

Tax Day 2010 is upon us. As we fill out our tax forms—or, more likely, wait for our return preparer to complete them—we may wonder just how much the federal government collects and what part we play in the whole scheme of things.

Dr. Martin Regalia
Senior Vice President and Chief Economist
Economic Policy
U.S. Chamber of Commerce

"...business will always be the true engine of job creation in this country."
--President Barack Obama, in a February 1 letter to Chamber President and CEO Tom Donohue

"Labor's agenda is stalled, and they'll have to drop the big ticket items. But they'll no doubt try to move smaller but still significant initiatives."
--Randy Johnson, Chamber senior vice president, quoted in The Wall Street Journal, January 21, 2010

1. What is the number one way you think government can help create jobs?
-Cut taxes/provide tax incentives    62.8%
-Invest in infrastructure                     12.7
-Expand lending                                     7.6
-Increase exports                                  5.1
-Promote investments in energy       3.3
-Other                                                           8.5

“Congress, the administration, and states must recognize that our weak economy simply could not sustain all the new taxes, regulations and mandates now under consideration. It’s a sure-fire recipe for a double-dip recession, or worse.”
—Chamber President and CEO Tom Donohue quoted in The Hill, January 12, 2010

“The Chamber still wields clout on Capitol Hill, and its opposition to proposed reforms such as the Consumer Financial Protection Agency has swayed moderate Democrats.”
—Financial Times, January 13, 2010

Dr. Martin Regalia
Senior Vice President and Chief Economist
Economic Policy
U.S. Chamber of Commerce

The economy and the labor market are continuing to improve gradually, more in fits and starts rather than leaps and bounds.

Below are responses to our December Quick Poll.

1. What are your hiring plans in the next six months?
Of those responding, 66.3% say they will maintain their current workforce. Only 14.4% plan to hire new employees, while 19.3% plan layoffs.

2. Do you have plans to increase your investment in plant or equipment?
Only about a quarter of the respondents plan to increase investments in the next 3 to 12 months; 72% have no plans.

"Despite coming under attack from the White House, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is not letting up in its bid to change the Democratic healthcare reform proposals moving through Congress."
--U.S. News & World Report, November 20, 2009

"While the government can help support some jobs in the short run, the only way to meet this challenge over the long term is through a vibrant and dynamic free enterprise system."
--Chamber President and CEO Tom Donohue, quoted by CNNMoney.com, December 2, 2009

Your voice counts -- tell us how economic conditions are affecting your business.

Dr. Martin Regalia
Senior Vice President and Chief Economist
Economic Policy
U.S. Chamber of Commerce

"We want to be able to challenge the president on issues without making it personal or without weakening the presidency, because that’s bad for our country. We enjoy exercising our constitutional right to petition the government."
--Chamber President and CEO Tom Donohue quoted in Politico, October 26, 2009

Dr. Martin Regalia
Senior Vice President and Chief Economist,
Economic Policy
U.S. Chamber of Commerce

Your voice counts -- tell us how economic conditions are affecting your business.

Dr. Martin Regalia

 
October 6, 2009—Second quarter GDP was upwardly revised and pending home sales posted another strong month in August. However, employment numbers were disappointing, and small decreases in consumer confidence and the ISM Index show that the road to recovery will be bumpy and uneven.

 
"What matters is not whether the AFL-CIO has cut a new backroom deal on the bill, it is whether it can be sold to Senate moderates who are worried about saving jobs, especially their own."
—Steven J. Law, U.S. Chamber chief legal officer and general counsel, on Sen. Arlen Specter's (D-PA) prediction that a revised card check bill will pass this year, as quoted in The Washington Post, September 15, 2009

Dr. Martin Regalia

Although it may be some time before we get the official word from the National Bureau of Economic Research, the U.S. economy finally appears to have turned the corner, and an end to the recession is in sight. The S&P 500 broke the 1,000 level, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose above 9,000, housing sales and starts have increased of late and prices are stabilizing, and credit market spreads are down significantly from the levels seen six months ago. 

 
September 8, 2009—The manufacturing and housing sectors expanded, but the employment situation remains bleak.

 
September 15, 2009—Initial jobless claims fell, and the Fed's Beige Book summarizing economic conditions noted many improvements. The trade deficit, however, widened.

 
September 29, 2009—Last week saw the release of positive housing reports and an announcement by the Fed that the recession has likely ended.

 
"If they feel compelled to respond and react to our messages, I take that as a compliment. I think that means we have created a dialogue."
— Bruce Josten, U.S. Chamber Executive Vice Presidenton labor unions' plans to launch a campaign against the Chamber, quoted in Politico, July 7, 2009

"A fortress for the business community, the Chamber has emerged as a multitasking, multimillion-dollar defender of the private sector ..."
—Associated Press, August 9, 2009

 
September 22, 2009—Last week's retail sales and new residential construction reports were both upbeat. Inflation remains contained in the short-term.

 
September 1, 2009—New home sales surged in July, and second quarter GDP was not revised downwards, as some economists expected. Consumer confidence stabilized after falling the previous two months.

 
Below are your responses to our June Quick Poll.

1. How do you rate President Obama's performance on economic issues?

Respondents overwhelmingly gave the president poor marks for his handling of economic issues. "This response is not surprising given the administration's propensity to increase spending and raise taxes," says U.S. Chamber Chief Economist Marty Regalia.

2. How do you rate Congress' performance on economic issues?

 
August 18, 2009—The Fed's statement confirms the general consensus that's been forming that the economic downturn is leveling off. Other data released this week also confirms this view, as the trade gap widened, retail sales were only slightly off, and the Consumer Price Index was unchanged for the month.

 
August 25, 2009—Existing home sales surged in July and the Index of Leading Indicators posted its fourth consecutive increase.

 
"The Chamber is gravely concerned by the process and the product thus far. As badly as [health care] reform is needed, we cannot support reform just for the sake of reform."
—Randy Johnson, U.S. Chamber senior vice president of Labor, Immigration and Employee Benefits, quoted by Dow Jones Newswires, June 11, 2009

"The Chamber's 'Campaign for Free Enterprise' attempts to weave together a coordinated response to the many regulatory and other threats that worry business interests."
—BusinessWeek, June 11, 2009

 
August 4, 2009—Major economic indicators released last week generally paint a picture of an economy on the verge of recovery. The economy slowed at a much slower pace and new home sales experienced strong gains. 

 
August 11, 2009—Economic indicators were mixed last week, but the general trend suggests that the pace of economic decline continues to slow and that positive economic growth should return in the third quarter.

 
July 14, 2009—The trade gap narrowed slightly in May, as exports increased. Initial jobless claims fell, though continuing claims grew.

Dr. Martin Regalia

In the classic film Being There, the late, great Peter Sellers portrayed a gardener who accidentally rises to fame by using simple gardening analogies and being misinterpreted as a wise counselor. This popped into my mind when I heard all the discussion of late about the "green shoots of recovery" and a possible end to the current downturn. At some risk of calling a recovery too soon, I think that the current data are clearly signaling a much less steep decline in the second quarter and the likely end to the recession before year-end.

 
July 7, 2009—June's job losses were far greater than May's, and consumer confidence took a hit. Pending home sales barely budged, while the ISM Survey remains below the expansionary threshold.

 
July 21, 2009—New residential construction increased, signaling that the housing market seems to have finally found a bottom. Inflation appears to be in control, but the news on retail sales and industrial production is not as good.

 
July 28, 2009—Existing home sales were up, as was the Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators. The labor market, however, continues to deteriorate, as initial jobless claims increased by 30,000.

 
June 16, 2009—All signs point to an easing in the downturn as retail sales posted a small increase, the trade balance was relatively unchanged, and the number of new weekly jobless claims showed minor improvement.

 
June 9, 2009—The economic downturn seems to be moderating, as fewer jobs were lost in May than in previous months and as manufacturing and housing data showed improvement.

 
"The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has found a surprising number of places to agree with President Barack Obama's agenda and is negotiating the specifics in daily meetings with the Treasury Department, the West Wing, and Capitol Hill."
–Politico, April 14, 2009

 
June 23, 2009—New residential construction surged in May, but last week's other major economic indicators were relatively flat.

 
June 2, 2009—First quarter GDP was revised upwards slightly, existing home sales and new homes sales posted modest gains, and consumer confidence skyrocketed.

Dr. Martin Regalia

Throughout his campaign, candidate Barack Obama threatened to raise taxes on "companies that ship jobs overseas" without ever specifying what exactly he meant. Recently, President Obama released some of the details of his proposed tax increases, and we are beginning to see exactly what he had in mind-and the details aren't good news.

Dr. Martin Regalia

A couple of months ago, the president unveiled his budget outline for the next 10 years. As is customary with a new administration, the proposal was not detailed, but it did provide the broad outline and goals for the new administration.

 
"I value the Chamber's input on promoting economic stability and growth and improving our nation's  competitiveness in today's sink-or-swim economy."
-Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR) on receiving the Chamber's Spirit of Enterprise Award on  March 26, 2009

"The U.S. Chamber of Commerce has a lot of resources for aspiring business owners online, including tools for self-examination."
-Killeen (TX) Daily News, April 5, 2009

 
Below are your responses to our March Quick Poll.

1. When do you expect the economy to start showing improvement?

Of those responding, 53% expect the economy to start improving before the middle of next year. Some 27% say it won't happen until after 2010.

2. What are your staffing plans for the next six months?

3. Do you have plans to modernize or increase investment in plant or equipment?

 
May 26, 2009—It appears the housing market is inching into recovery, and the Conference Board Leading Indicator Index posted its first increase since June 2008.

 
May 5, 2009—Gross Domestic Product decreased at a 6.1% annual rate. The Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing survey improved in April but remains weak. The Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged.

 
May 19, 2009—Retail sales fell 0.4%, the Consumer Price Index was unchanged, the Producer Price Index rose 0.3%, and the trade deficit posted a small widening. These small variations from month-earlier data provide hope that the worst of the recession has past.

May 12, 2009—Unemployment rose again, but pending home sales increased for the second consecutive month and productivity grew.

 
April 14, 2008—Overall, the latest indicators show consumers continue to reign in their spending. Imports fell by 5.1% and consumer credit fell by $7.5 billion as consumers seek ways to save, thus driving down demand. The job market shows some tenuous signs of recovery. Initial weekly jobless claims fell by 20,000.

 
April 21, 2008—Retail sales, the Producer Price Index, and new residential construction all declined in March, signaling that the economy remains entrenched in a recession.

Dr. Martin Regalia

 
"Business groups, led by ... the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, are already gearing up to fight any EPA move to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, fearing costly new mandates."
The Wall Street Journal, February 23, 2009

 
April 7, 2008—The unemployment rate rose to 8.5% in March as the labor market shed another 663,000 jobs. However, indicators measuring consumer confidence, manufacturing, and pending home sales have shown some signs that the economy may be stabilizing.

 
April 28, 2009—Last week's economic data was mostly negative, which fits with the U.S. Chamber's current view that the economy is still in decline but that the rate of decline may be slowing. Orders for durable goods declined in March, as did sales of new and existing homes.

Dr. Martin Regalia

My mother always said, "It is darkest just before dawn," while my dad, who ran a small business his whole life, was more of a "it's darkest just before it goes pitch black!" kind of guy.

 
March 17, 2009—In February, retail sales were off slightly as consumers looked to conserve cash, and factories cut output. The trade deficit narrowed in January because of falling global demand.

 
"The House of Representatives passed two so-called pay equity bills that will have severe and serious consequences for American small business. That's why I stood with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and similar groups in strong opposition to these bills."
—Rep. Michele Bachmann
(R-MN) in a letter to the editor for ABC Newspapers, January 30, 2009

"By sticking to its principles—supporting capitalism and trade at a time when Washington is wobbly on both—the Chamber shows extraordinary courage."
—Forbes, March 2, 2009

 
March 24, 2009—The Federal Reserve agreed to keep interest rates at their current levels and announced the purchase of debt and long-term Treasury securities. In February, the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index both increased as energy prices come off their lows in late 2008. Also, new residential construction rose 22% in February.

 
March 31, 2009—The latest batch of economic data offered some surprising news, as orders for durable goods increased while sales of existing and new homes rose as well. However, Gross Domestic Product growth in the fourth quarter of 2008 was revised downward.

 
March 3, 2009—The Gross Domestic Product fell sharply in the fourth quarter of 2008, and consumer confidence hit yet another record low in February. January existing and new home sales both declined.

 
March 10, 2009—In February, firms continued to shed employees and business confidence essentially remained flat. Pending home sales declined in January after increasing in December.

Dr. Martin Regalia

You have to love weather forecasters. When the outlook calls for freezing rain, sleet, snow, and ice-truly horrid driving conditions-they cheerily label it a wintry mix. It just sounds so much better! Well, if it works for the weather, why not for the economy? So, while the real economy remains mired in the depths of a serious economic downturn with rapidly rising unemployment, plummeting wealth, falling consumption and investment, and slowing export growth, let's just call it an economic wintry mix. There, don't we all feel better?

 
February 24, 2009—In January, consumer prices increased for the first time since July, and producer prices for finished goods also increased. Industrial production took another hit, and the housing market continued to struggle as new residential construction plunged.

 
February 17, 2009—More than a half million people filed for initial jobless benefits for the week ending February 7. U.S. trade in goods and services declined again in December. Retail sales rose 1.0% in January, though sales are far off their year-ago mark.

 
February 10, 2009—The employment situation continued to deteriorate in January, as employers shed 598,000 jobs. Manufacturing remained sluggish; the ISM posted an increase in January, but remains well below the threshold for expansion. Factory Orders fell as demand continued to decrease. Last, pending home sales increased as buyers were enticed by low mortgage rates and home prices.

 
In December, we asked for your opinions in our Quick Poll. Below are your respon-
ses. Look for future surveys to tell us what you think.

1. How do you see the economy six months from now?

Nearly 25% of respondents expect a stronger economy in six months, up from 21% in August. Some 40% expect a weaker economy, down from 41% in August. About 35% expect the economy to be the same in six months.

2. What impact do you think the new Congress and new administration will have on your business? 

 
February 3, 2009—The decline in GDP in the fourth quarter was the steepest in 27 years. Consumer confidence and new home sales also took big hits. The federal funds rate stayed between 0%
and 0.25%

 
January 27, 2009—New residential construction posted another hefty loss in December, but existing home sales increased. The Conference Board's Leading Indicators Index increased in December.

Dr. Martin Regalia

Well, it's official. We are in a recession. In November, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declared that the economy officially entered a recession in December 2007. That's right! One year after we started declining, NBER told us what most people already knew-all was not right in our economy.

 
American voters strongly support the U.S. Chamber's policy agenda to grow the economy and create jobs.

Poll data show that a majority of registered voters (77%) said that they oppose tax hikes now, favor new trade agreements (58%), support upgrading and modernizing the infrastructure (95%), support increased drilling and market-driven solutions to developing alternative and renewable energy (67%), and prefer federally supervised secret ballot elections in union organizing campaigns to a card check method favored by labor unions (71%).

 
"Energy policy can create jobs, give an economic lift, and get us out of this ditch."
—Chamber President and CEO Thomas J. Donohue, quoted in BusinessWeek, November 26, 2008

"By having an employer-based [health care] system, employers can make offerings that allow them to attract the most talented people to their organizations."
—Anthony Wisniewski, Chamber executive director of health care policy, quoted in The Los Angeles Times, December 10, 2008

 
January 21, 2009—Falling energy prices and weak consumer demand contributed to a decline in international trade in November. In December, retail sales declined 2.7%, the Consumer Price Index fell 0.7%, and the Producer Price Index was down by 1.9%.

 
January 13, 2009—In December, the unemployment rate rose, as nonfarm payrolls declined substantially. A forward looking indicator of the housing market suggests that troubles in that sector will continue. Finally, factory orders were down in November.

 
"I think an Obama presidency will share the same interest and concerns as our members and the rest of the American public, and that's to get the engine of growth going, get innovation going again, and get job creation growing."
-Bruce Josten, executive vice president, U.S. Chamber, quoted on NPR's "Morning Edition," November 6, 2008

Dr. Martin Regalia

As I mentioned last month, it is evident that the U.S. economy is in a recession. Moreover, the incoming data suggest that the downturn will be steeper and more prolonged than either of the last two, perhaps rivaling the double-dip decline of the early 1980s. One reason for such pessimism is the global nature of the current downturn. Most of our major trading partners were caught up in the recent credit problems and are experiencing slower growth.

 
December 16, 2008—The U.S. trade deficit widened in October. Retail Sales fell in November with slow sales at gasoline stations and auto dealers. Declining energy prices pushed the Producer Price Index down last month. Pending home sales declined again in October.

 
December 23, 2008—The FOMC lowered the federal funds rate to its lowest level ever. The Consumer Price Index fell in November, as energy prices continued to decline. Industrial production and new residential construction also declined in November. 

 
Your voice counts! Please respond to the following four questions by going to www.uschamber.com/speakout and receive instant survey results. We'll also let you know how your colleagues responded by posting the results in this space in a future issue.

1. With credit being tight, have you or your business had more difficulty getting a loan?

2. What impact do you think the new Congress and administration will have on your business?

 
December 9, 2008—News on the economic front continues to be dismal. In November, the unemployment rate rose, with the decline in nonfarm payrolls the largest since 1974. Weak manufacturing numbers confirmed the poor state of the economy; the ISM fell in November, and factory orders were down in October.

 
December 2, 2008—In its latest estimate of third quarter economic activity, the Bureau of Economic Activity lowered its estimate of gross domestic product growth. Home sales are still sluggish. Existing home sales and new home sales both fell in October.

 
November 18, 2008—Retailers had a grim month in October as sales were down compared to September. As the nation enters a recession, industrial activity is generally weak, although industrial production increased slightly in October. Exports, which have recently been a significant driver of economic growth, declined in September, and imports fell as well. Last, the budget deficit narrowed in October.

 
"I am pleased to be back at the U.S. Chamber. I want to thank the members of this fine organization for your efforts to support the spirit of free enterprise and to advance the interests of businesses, large and small, across our great country."

-President Bush, speaking to a U.S. Chamber audience, October 17, 2008

"Much of the shift [in votes] was likely driven by business groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which mobilized its members to call their representatives."

 
November 25, 2008—With the recent decline in energy prices, the Consumer Price Index fell in October, setting off new fears that the economy is entering a deflationary period. The Producer Price Index also declined last month. New residential construction fell again in October due to continued trouble in the financial markets.

Dr. Martin Regalia

 
November 11, 2008—The latest economic indicators contain little good news. Unemployment is on the rise, shedding thousands of jobs last month. The ISM survey fell again in October, showing decreased industrial output. Last, the housing market remains troubled, with pending home sales declining in September.

 
October 14, 2008—The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the funds rate in an emergency move last week. However, some economic indicators were positive last week, despite the economic meltdown. In August, the trade deficit narrowed as oil imports dropped, and pending home sales grew.

 
"[Chamber President and CEO] Tom Donohue said that whether Democratic candidate Sen. Barack Obama or Republican candidate Sen. John McCain wins the White House, the victor will have to work closely with the Chamber."
—The Hill, August 26, 2008

 
October 7, 2008—The employment situation continued its deterioration in September as payrolls declined by the thousands. Consumer confidence was up slightly, on the heels of increased expectations for the future. Manufacturing was weak in September; the ISM fell below the threshold for expansion. Weak manufacturing news was also evident in the factory orders report, as all components decreased in August's report.

 
October 28, 2008—The economic indicators released last week provided some good news in the face of a gloomy stock market and global economy. The Conference Board's leading indicators posted a slight increase in September, buoyed by a larger money supply. Existing and new home sales were up for the month.

In August we asked for your opinions in our poll. Here are your responses.

1. Have you seen a spike in your business since the IRS mailed stimulus checks to 130 million taxpayers?

Some 95% said that they did not see an increase in their businesses resulting from the tax rebate checks. But research shows that the typical family increased spending by 3.5% when their rebate arrived, boosting overall nondurable consumption by 2.4% in the second quarter.

2. How do you see the economy six months from now?

 
October 21, 2008—Industrial production took a hit last month. Inflation appears to be in check, as the Consumer Price Index remained flat in September, while the Producer Price Index fell on the heels of cheaper energy. Last, new residential construction fell again last month.

Dr. Martin Regalia

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) in July published a report, Comparison of the Reported Tax Liabilities of Foreign- and U.S.-Controlled Corporations, 1998-2005, GAO-08-957, requested by Sens. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) and Carl Levin (D-MI). The GAO examined a sample of annual IRS data from the Statistics of Income Division (SOI) containing information on corporations that file income tax returns and the number that actually had a tax liability for the years 1998 through 2005.

 
September 2, 2008—The housing market may be showing the first signs of stabilization, as existing home sales and new home sales increased. Government rebate checks and higher exports led the Bureau of Economic Analysis to upwardly revise their estimate for second quarter GDP growth, as consumer confidence continued its resurgence.

 
"If we fail to act now and implement new policies that will address our long-term transportation needs, we are going to severely harm the flow of goods, our mobility, our safety."
- Chamber President and CEO Tom Donohue quoted in Shipping Digest, July 7, 2008

 
September 16, 2008—Growing oil imports caused a widening of the U.S. trade deficit in July. The Producer Price Index gave up some ground in August. Consumers reigned in on spending in August as retail sales fell. Finally, pending home sales fell in July, as the housing correction continues.

 
For the U.S. Chamber to effectively represent your business' interests, we need to hear from you. The biennial National Business Agenda survey is your opportunity to speak up and help shape the Chamber's policy priorities for the next Congress and administration.

This survey allows you to rate the importance of tax and economic policy, legal reform, regulatory and environmental policy, transportation infrastructure investment, and a host of other issues critical to our economy.

 
September 30, 2008—New home sales plummeted in August, while existing home sales also took a dive last month. The latest GDP report for the second quarter took some of the shine off of earlier numbers as GDP growth was revised downward.

 
September 9, 2008—Vehicle sales unexpectedly rose in August as oil prices have finally started to decline. Manufacturing again displayed its resilience in July as new orders increased. The labor market deteriorated in August as the unemployment rate jumped and the economy shed tens-of-thousands of jobs. Business confidence remains near 50, suggesting weakness but not a deep recession, at least at this point.

Dr. Martin Regalia

 
August 5, 2008—In the 2nd quarter, the GDP grew as strong consumer spending came on the heels of government rebate checks. Unemployment rose as employers again slashed their payrolls. Manufacturing remains sluggish as the ISM fell slightly. Expectations for the future rose, causing an improvement in overall consumer confidence.

 
August 19, 2008—The international trade balance narrowed in June as the weak U.S. economy is demanding fewer imports. Prices rose again in July, as the Consumer Price Index rose and elevated energy prices were passed along to consumers. With fewer government rebate checks to spur shopping, retail spending fell in July. Industrial production rose slightly in July as mining and manufacturing posted small gains.

 
"There's an energy tsunami coming, and when you see it coming you better get on top of the wave, or you're going to get crushed by it."
- Gen. James L. Jones,USMC (Ret.), president and CEO, U.S. Chamber Institute for 21st Century Energy, quoted by the Associated Press, July 15, 2008

"The Chamber has been a tremendous organization over the years. I'm delighted to work with you and participate in your worthy enterprise."
-Vice President Dick Cheney speaking to the U.S. Chamber board of directors, June 11, 2008

 
August 26, 2008—In July, the Producer Price Index rose as higher food and energy prices worked their way through all stages of production. The housing market continues to show signs of weakness; new residential construction fell in July. Last, the Conference Board's Leading Indicators index is at a 4-year low.

Dr. Martin Regalia

 
August 12, 2008—Though the FOMC noted concerns over rising inflation, it decided to keep the federal funds rate steady at its latest meeting. Manufacturing again displayed its resilience in June at new orders surged. As fewer government rebates were mailed in June, personal income rose in June, after posting an increase of in May. Last, pending home sales grew in June, following an increase in May.

 
In May, we asked for your opinions in our Quick Poll. Below are your responses.

1. What is your business' greatest immediate concern?

By a large margin, high gasoline prices top the list of immediate concerns. According to Bill Kovacs, Chamber vice president for Technology, Environment and Regulatory Affairs, "Congress needs to allow more domestic oil production."

 
"[Pennsylvania Gov. Ed] Rendell (D) and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce are trying to make rebuilding infrastructure—including roads, bridges, airports, railroads, and ports—a national priority."
-Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, May 18, 2008

"... the jobs, the innovation, the future of this country are tied into the [nation's] 26 million small businesses, and we should never forget that."
-Chamber President and CEO Tom Donohue on "Fox Business Live," April 29, 2008

 
July 22,2008—The Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index both increased significantly last month, and may cause the Fed to take anti-inflationary measures. Industrial production and retail sales picked up in June. In a rare spot of good news for the beleaguered housing market, new residential construction posted a gain.

 
July 15,2008—The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in May as the weak dollar fueled exports and the weak domestic economy limited imports. Problems remain in the housing market, as evidenced by a decrease in pending home sales in May. Consumers remained glum as the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey remained low in July.

Dr. Martin Regalia

 
July 29, 2008—The housing market remains troubled, as both new and existing home sales continue on a downward slide. Orders for durable goods posted an increase in June as firms continue to invest in core capital goods.

 
July 8, 2008—Vehicle sales were down in June, continuing a downward trend. Labor markets remain soft and the unemployment rate was unchanged last month. Nonfarm payrolls declined for the sixth consecutive month and the employment outlook is generally weak. On the upside, the ISM surprised many by crossing above an important threshold and factory orders also showed modest growth. Nonetheless, high energy prices continue to weigh on the economy and on consumer sentiment.

 
July 1, 2008—Increased insecurity over inflation kept the FOMC from reducing rates at its latest meeting and kept the federal funds rate steady. The BEA upwardly revised its GDP number for the first quarter as exports and consumer spending and business investment were stronger than originally reported. Consumer confidence continued to slide for June. Housing numbers remained mixed as existing home sales rose and new home sales fell in May.

 
June 24, 2008—The housing market remains weak as evidenced by a fall in new residential construction. Higher energy and food prices caused the Producer Price Index to increase, while a drop in utility output hampered industrial production. Last, the Conference Board's Leading Indicators rose, with higher stock prices and a higher yield spread making the largest positive contributions to the index.

 
June 17, 2008—The stimulus payments spurred consumers to increase their spending in May, as retail sales rose. Also in May, the Consumer Price Index recorded an increase on the heels of a spike in energy prices. Finally, bargain shoppers appeared to boost the housing market as many foreclosed homes were bought in May, causing an unexpected rise in pending home sales.

 
June 3, 2008—First quarter GDP grew at a better rate than initially reported. The sale of new homes increased in April. However, economic uneasiness continued to weigh on the minds of consumers, driving consumer confidence to a 16-year low. Finally, personal income inched upward in April as inflation restricted larger gains in income growth.

 
Job hunters face a bleak outlook, as employers cut their payrolls and the unemployment rated jumped to 5.5% in May. The ISM rose, but remains below the threshold for expansion for the fourth straight month. Factory orders also increased on strong orders for nondurable goods.

Dr. Martin Regalia

With the dollar's decline and the increasing role that export growth has played thus far in offsetting much of the decline in housing markets, now may be a good time to take another look at the position of the United States in the global economy and the implications of  that position for America's citizens, businesses, and policymakers.

Dr. Martin Regalia

It's been awhile since we have examined the current state of the economy, so we thought that it would be a good time to update the outlook.

 
May 6, 2008—As expected, the FOMC cut rates to 2% in an attempt to spur economic growth. The BEA released the first estimate for GDP on Wednesday, indicating higher-than-expected economic growth. While employers shed thousands of jobs in April, consumer confidence continued to decline. Last, as the ISM index remained unchanged in April, factory orders fell.

 
May 20, 2008—Inflation remained in check as consumers spending remained low in April and retail sales fell. Sharp declines in manufacturing and mining hindered industrial production, while, to the surprise of analysts, new residential construction spiked last month.

 
May 27, 2008—The housing market continued to stumble, with existing homes sales falling in April. The prices paid by producers continued to increase in April, as the Producer's Price Index also rose. The Conference Board's Leading Indicators provided some good news, as it rose for the second straight month.

 
May 13, 2008—The housing market remains weak and despite many good deals, pending home sales data indicate that existing home sales will not recover in the next few months. The ISM nonmanufacturing index increased, indicating that the service sector is growing, while productivity growth continued in the 1st quarter.

 
April 29, 2008—Durable goods orders inched down 0.3% in March, as businesses purchased core capital goods. The housing market remains bleak, as new home sales decreased 8.5% in March and existing homes sales fell 2.0%.

 
April 8, 2008—The labor market continued to struggle in March, as employers shed 80,000 jobs. Adding to the sour mood, the BEA downwardly revised its figures for January and February, with each month reporting a loss of 76,000 jobs. Though the ISM remains below 50, it inched upward 0.3 to 48.6 in February. Factory orders, however, fell 1.3% in February.

 
April 1, 2008—GDP growth remained sluggish, as the BEA announced that economy grew at a 0.6% annualized rate in the 4th quarter. Growth in personal income increased, inching up 0.5% in February. Trouble continues in the housing market, as the sale of new homes decreased 1.8% for the month.

 
April 15, 2008—Sales at retailers inched up 0.2% in March as consumers spent money at sporting goods stores and gasoline stations, though the latter is due to ongoing increases in energy prices, not increased demand for gasoline. The trade deficit widened an unexpected 5.7% in February to $62.3 billion. Trouble persists in the housing market, as the index for pending home sales fell 1.9% to 84.6% due to buyers' reluctance to invest in real estate.

 
In February, we asked for your opinions in our Quick Poll. Here are your responses. Look for future surveys to tell us what you think.

1. How would you describe the current economic environment for your business?

Despite a sluggish economy, 53% of the respondents view the current economic environment somewhere between good and excellent. Still, that figure is down considerably from the same point last year (75%).

2. What are your hiring plans in the next six months?

Dr. Martin Regalia

With the second session of the 110th Congress in full swing and an economic stimulus bill recently passed, it seems that tax day has crept up on us once again. Whether you are waiting anxiously for your refund check or bemoaning the fact that you are writing a check, it's a good time to look at some tax facts and see who really pays what taxes.

 
March 25, 2008—The Federal Open Market Committee cut the federal funds rate 75 basis points, as problems continue to plague many areas of the economy. Industrial production and utility output fell in February, while a reduction in food prices moderated other inflationary pressures throughout the pipeline as the Producer Price Index rose. Last, the housing market continues to struggle, as new residential construction slowed last month.

 
March 11, 2008—In February, employers cut 63,000 jobs, fueling fears of a recession. The ISM retreated in February, thus, manufacturing activity is contracting. Factory orders fell as firms pulled back on capital expenditures, while productivity growth continued in the 4th quarter. Some relief may be at hand in the housing market, as the index for pending home sales remained steady from December to January.

 
March 18, 2008—Sluggish consumer demand and a slowing of the rise in energy prices caused the Consumer Price Index to remain steady in February. Consumers pulled back on spending during February, as retail sales fell 0.6%. Finally, the trade balance grew in January to $58.2 billion.

 
March 4, 2008—GDP growth slowed to a crawl in the 4th quarter, as did personal income growth in January. Producer prices for finished goods increased in January while orders for durable goods fell, and trouble continues in the housing market.

Dr. Martin Regalia

A couple of months back in this column I presented my forecast for the economy over the next year or so. While the economy over much of last year had been quite resilient in the face of a number of shocks, most notably housing and oil, the outlook had become quite dicey. I nevertheless believed that the economy would avoid an outright recession. With much of the fourth quarter data available as I write this, I thought it may be a good time to see how we are doing.

 
February 19, 2008—Strong spending at gas stations unexpectedly drove a rise of 0.3% in overall retail sales in January. Business inventories also improved, posting an increase of 0.6% for the month. A surge in utility output led to industrial production to inch up 0.1% in January. Finally, the trade balance narrowed by $4.36 billion in December as the weak dollar continued to propel US exports while making imports more expensive to the American consumer.

Speak Out!

How is the economy affecting your business? Do you plan to hire in the next six months? Are you planning to modernize or increase your business investment? Have you decided how you'll vote in the 2008 presidential election? We want to know. Respond to the following four questions by going to www.uschamber.com/speakout and receive instant survey results. We'll also let you know how your colleagues responded by posting the results in this space in a future issue.

 
February 5, 2008—The Federal Open Market Committee cut the federal funds rate 50 basis points to 3.0% at its regularly scheduled meeting. Gross Domestic Product growth was weak, inching up 0.6% in the 4th quarter, according to early estimates from the BEA. January's employment report indicated the labor market struggled, as employers slashed 17,000 jobs. While the ISM inched into its expansionary territory with a reading of 50.7, manufacturing activity remains sluggish as a convergence of factors hinder stronger output.

 
February 26, 2008—High energy prices continued to plague consumers as the Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in January. The Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators posted a small increase in January, lead by an increased monetary supply and gains in consumer confidence. A sluggish housing market continued in January, as existing home sales fell 0.4%, according to the National Association of Realtors. New housing starts increased 0.8% in January, but permits were off 3.0% for the month.

 
February 12, 2008—In December, factory orders rose 2.3%, led by a surge in durable goods orders. The outlook for growth in the service sector appears weak, as the ISM Nonmanufacturing Index fell to 44.6%. Finally, nonfarm business productivity posted a better-than-expected gain of 1.8% (SAAR) in the 4th quarter.

 
In November, we asked for your opinions in our Speak Out! survey. Below are your responses.

1. What is the biggest burden to your business?
 
Given a choice of five responses, about 31% of the respondents said that taxes are the biggest burden to their businesses. About one-quarter cited health care costs.

 
Producer prices fell 0.1% in December, as energy prices gave up some of their November gains.  Retail sales decreased, too, at a rate of 0.4%. After posting increases in September and October, pending home sales plunged 2.6% in November as problems continue in the housing sector.

 
The FOMC lowered the federal funds rate 75 base points to 3.5% as uncertainty over future economic growth continued. Overall prices for consumer goods increased 0.3% in December while the core CPI rose 0.2%. Industrial production continued at an unchanged rate for the month of December. New residential construction and the sale of existing homes remained sluggish, dropping 14.2% and 2.2%, respectively.

 
The labor market created 18,000 net new jobs in December as the unemployment rate inched upward to 5.0%.  Construction spending inched up 0.1%, driven by a 2.5% increase in public construction spending. The ISM Index fell to 47.7 in December, representing a loss of 3.1 points over the previous month and is no longer in expansionary territory. Last, factory orders grew a larger-than-expected 1.5% in November.

Dr. Martin Regalia

While worries over the impact of the subprime debacle, a credit crunch, increasing oil prices, and the possibility of a recession grab the headlines, two ticking time bombs in the tax code go largely undiscussed: namely, the impending expiration of the Bush tax cuts and the creeping encroachment of the AMT (alternative minimum tax). 

 
December 11, 2007—The labor market created 94,000 net new jobs in November while the unemployment rate remained at 4.7%. Nonfarm business productivity increased 6.3% in the 3^rd quarter, a welcome improvement on the 2.2% rise during the 2^nd quarter. The ISM Index inched down in November to 50.8 but remains in expansionary territory. Last, factory orders grew a larger-than-expected 0.5% in October.

 
December 18, 2007—The FOMC lowered the federal funds rate 25 base points to 4.25% as uncertainty over future economic growth continued. Overall prices for consumer goods surged 0.8% in November while the core CPI increased 0.3%. Concurrently, producer prices grew 3.2% as the core PPI posted a 0.4% increase. Retail sales and industrial production both increased, posting gains of 1.2% and 0.3%, respectively.

Dr. Martin Regalia

It has been a tumultuous few months since we last examined the state of the economy. So for this month's column, I'll leave the current developments in AMT reform and tax policy aside and focus on our economic outlook.

 
December 4, 2007—Both personal income and consumption rose 0.2% in October. The GDP grew 4.9% in the 3^rd quarter and has increased 2.8% on a year-ago basis. New home sales increased 1.7% while sales of existing homes fell 1.2%. Both new and existing home sales are down significantly compared to last year. Last, durable goods orders declined an unexpected 0.4% in October.

 
November 13, 2007—The labor market created 166,000 net new jobs in October as the unemployment rate remained at 4.7%. Nonfarm business productivity rose 4.9% (SAAR) in the 3^rd quarter, up from a 2.2% increase in the 2^nd quarter. In September, the trade deficit narrowed 0.6% to $56.5 billion. Concurrently, factory orders rose 0.2% while consumer credit increased $3.7 billion to $2.482 trillion.

 
November 6, 2007—At its latest meeting, the FOMC cut the funds rate 25 basis points to 4.50%, its second consecutive rate reduction. The GDP grew 3.9% in the 3^rd quarter and has increased 2.6% on a year-over-year basis. Personal income rose 0.4% in September while consumption grew 0.3%. During the same period, growth in compensation costs decelerated to 0.8%, which is good news for inflation. Last, the ISM index decreased in October to 50.9, but remained in expansionary territory.

 
November 20, 2007—Overall prices for consumer goods rose 0.3% in October while the core CPI increased 0.2%. Concurrently, producer prices grew 0.1% as the core PPI went unchanged. Retail sales were weak in October, increasing a modest 0.2% while industrial production decreased 0.5%. Last, business inventories rose 0.4% in September.

 
November 27, 2007—Housing starts rose 3.0% in October but are down 16.4% compared to last year. Concurrently, the Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators fell 0.5%.

Dr. Martin Regalia

 
October 2, 2007—The ‘final' estimate by the BEA indicates that the GDP grew 3.8% in the 2^nd quarter. Personal income rose 0.3% in August while consumption grew 0.6%. The housing market is still in bad shape, as new home sales and existing home sales decreased 8.3% and 4.3%, respectively. Last, new orders for durable goods fell 4.9% in August.
 
Gross Domestic Product

 
October 30, 2007—New home sales rose 4.8% in September to 770,000 units but are down 23.3% compared to last year. Existing home sales, however, fell 8.0% during the same period and are down 19.1 on a year-over-year basis. Overall, the housing market remains weak. Last, new orders for durable goods fell a larger-than-expected 1.7% while orders for capital goods increased 0.4%.

 
October 16, 2007—The trade deficit narrowed in August, falling 2.4% to $57.6 billion. Producer prices for finished good rose 1.1% in September while core prices increased 0.1%. Concurrently, total retail sales rose 0.6%. In August, wholesale inventories inched up 0.1% as sales increased 0.4%. Last, total business inventories increased 0.1% in August.

 
October 9, 2007—The labor market created 110,000 net new jobs in September, but the unemployment rate inched up to 4.7%. Concurrently, the ISM index fell to 52.0 but remains in expansionary territory. In August, factory orders decreased a larger-than-expected 3.3% while consumer credit rose $12.2 billion to $2.47 trillion.

In July, we took a look at the latest 800-pound tax gorilla–the alternative minimum tax (AMT)–and how it is threatening to gain more weight by bingeing on middle-class taxpayers and consuming even more of their hard-earned money. Well Congress thinks it has the answer ' or a number of answers, depending on who you listen to. Hmmm ' let's take a look at some of these possible "solutions."

 
October 23, 2007—The housing market continues to struggle as housing starts plunged 10.2% in September. Overall prices for consumer goods increased 0.3% in September, while the core CPI rose 0.2%. Industrial production increased 0.1% for the month, while the Index of Leading Indicators grew 0.3%.
 
Consumer Price Index

Slow or No Growth Ahead

 
September 4, 2007—The GDP grew at a 4.0% rate in the 2nd quarter, a welcome improvement from the weak 0.6% growth in the 1st quarter. Existing home sales fell 0.2% in July and are down 9.0% compared to a year ago. Concurrently, personal income rose 0.5% and the PCE deflator inched up only 0.1%.Lastly, factory orders increased a larger-than-expected 3.7%.

 
September 25, 2007—For the first time in four years the FOMC cut the funds rate, reducing it to 4.75%. On the inflation front, the consumer price index fell 0.1% in August while the producer price index posted a 1.4% decline. Concurrently, the housing market remains weak, as housing starts fell 2.6% to 1.331 million units. Last, the index of leading economic indicators fell 0.6%.

 
September 18, 2007—The trade deficit narrowed in July, falling $0.2 billion to $59.2 billion. Concurrently, consumer credit rose 3.7% (annualized rate) to $2.456 trillion. In August, retail sales increased 0.3% while industrial production grew 0.2%. Last, business inventories rose 0.5% in August while sales jumped 1.1%.

 
September 11, 2007—The labor markets shed 4,000 jobs in August as the unemployment rate held steady at 4.6%. Concurrently, the ISM index decreased but remained in expansionary territory. In the 2^nd quarter, nonfarm business productivity increased 2.6% while unit labor costs inched up 1.4%. Last, wholesale inventories increased 0.2% in July as sales grew 0.1%.
 
Employment Situation

 
August 7, 2007—The labor market created 102,000 net new jobs in July as the unemployment rate increased to 4.6%. Concurrently, the ISM index remained in expansionary territory but fell to 53.8. Personal income rose 0.4% in June while consumption grew 0.1%. Factory orders increased a smaller-than-expected 0.4%. Lastly, the employment cost index increased 0.9% in the 2^nd quarter.

Dr. Martin Regalia

Last month I promised to write another column about the alternative minimum tax (AMT). I've decided to save that topic for a later date in order to give the various AMT reform proposals percolating in Congress time to come into clearer focus.

 
August 28, 2007—Housing starts fell 6.1% to 1.38 million units in July and are down 20.9% year-over-year. Concurrently, new home sales increased 2.8% to 870,000 units. Industrial production increased 0.3% in July while the Index of Leading Indicators rose 0.4%. Last, new orders for durable goods jumped a much larger-than-expected 5.9%.

 
August 14, 2007—Nonfarm business productivity increased 1.8% in the 2^nd quarter as unit labor costs grew 2.1%. For the ninth straight meeting, the FOMC held the funds rate steady at 5.25%. Consumer credit rose 6.5% to $2.459 trillion in June as both revolving and nonrevolving credit increased. Lastly, wholesale inventories increased 0.5% while sales jumped 0.6%.

 
August 21, 2007—The consumer price index inched up only 0.1% in July as energy prices fell. Concurrently, the producer price index jumped 0.6%. Retail sales rose 0.3% in July while core sales were up 0.6%. Total business inventories grew 0.4%. Lastly, the trade deficit narrowed $1.02 billion to $58.1 billion.
 
Consumer Price Index

 
July 10, 2007—The labor market created 132,000 net new jobs in June as the unemployment rate remained at 4.5%. The manufacturing industry continued to gain momentum, as the ISM index increased 1.0 point to 56.0. Lastly, factory orders fell 0.5% in May, reversing the 0.5% increase in April.

 
July 17, 2007—Total retail sales fell 0.9% in June while core sales declined 0.3%. Concurrently, business inventories increased 0.5% and business sales surged 1.3%. The trade deficit widened in May, rising $1.4 billion to $60.0 billion. Consumer credit increased $12.9 billion to $2.440 trillion in May, and, lastly, wholesale inventories jumped 0.5% while wholesale sales rose 1.3%.

Results Are In!

In May, we asked for your opinions in our Speak Out survey. Below are your responses. Look for future surveys and tell us what you think.

1. How would you describe the current economic environment for your business?
Respondents' views of the economy in May were slightly depressed compared with February. Nevertheless, nearly 70% consider the economic environment somewhere between good and excellent, while less than 10% rated the economy very poor.

 
July 24, 2007—Producer prices for finished goods fell 0.2% in June as food and energy prices dropped. Concurrently, the consumer price index rose 0.2%. Industrial production increased 0.5% as manufacturing, mining, and utilities output grew. Furthermore, housing starts rose 2.3% in June but are still down 19.4% compared to a year ago. Lastly, the index of leading indicators fell 0.3%.

Dr. Martin Regalia

First in a two-part series

The talk on Capitol Hill about the alternative minimum tax, or AMT, has become very lively this year-perhaps more so than in previous years. What's it all about?

 
July 31, 2007—The GDP recovered from a weak 1^st quarter by increasing a larger-than-expected 3.4% in the 2nd quarter. The housing market continues to struggle. Sales of both existing and new homes decreased in June, falling 3.8% and 6.6%, respectively. Lastly, durable goods increased 1.4% in June.
 
Gross Domestic Product

 
June 12, 2007—The trade deficit narrowed in April, decreasing $3.9 billion to $58.5 billion. Concurrently, growth in factory orders slowed to 0.3%. Nonfarm business productivity increased 1.0% in the 1^st quarter while unit labor costs grew 1.8%. Lastly, wholesale inventories increased 0.3% in April while sales jumped 1.3%.

International Trade

 
June 26, 2007—The housing market continues to struggle. Housing starts fell 2.1% to 1.474 million units in May and are down 24.2% on a year-ago basis. Concurrently, existing home sales dropped 0.3% to 5.99 million units. Lastly, the Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% in May, reversing its 0.3% decline in April.

 
June 5, 2007—The GDP grew an anemic 0.65% in the 1st quarter as the weak housing market and weak trade hindered growth. Corporate profits increased $20.3 billion to $1.669 trillion. The labor market created 157,000 net new jobs in May while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.5%. The ISM index remained strong in May by increasing 0.3 points to 55.0. Lastly, personal income fell 0.1% in April while consumption rose 0.5%.

 
June 19, 2007—Total retail sales increased a stronger-than-expected 1.4% in May. The CPI rose 0.7% while the core CPI inched up 0.1%. Concurrently, the PPI jumped 0.9%, but the core PPI increased a moderate 0.2%. Lastly, industrial production was unchanged in May while business inventories increased 0.4%.

Dr. Martin Regalia

Inflation, the general increase in prices, is a well-known concept. We read about it in the press, we feel its impact in our pocketbooks, and the Fed watches it intensely in determining monetary policy. But it can also be confusing.

 
As we sputter through the first half of 2007, the economy continues to overcome obstacles in its path, but the lack of momentum has clearly raised anxiety levels among commentators, the media, and some economists. I still believe that the economy will gradually accelerate through the year and approach its long-run potential growth rate by year-end, but it is likely to be a nail-biter.

 
May 22, 2007—The consumer price index rose 0.4% in April while the core CPI inched up 0.2%. Housing starts rose 2.5% for the month but are still down 16.1% on a year-over-year basis. Also, industrial production rose a larger-than-expected 0.7% in April. Concurrently, the index of leading indicators fell 0.5%. Lastly, in March, total business inventories fell 0.1%.
 
Consumer Price Index

 
May 1, 2007—The GDP grew an anemic 1.3% in the 1st quarter as the weak housing market and trade hindered growth. Concurrently, compensation costs increased 0.8%. Sales of existing homes plunged 8.4% in March, but new home sales actually increased, rising 2.6%. Lastly, new orders for durable goods grew a stronger-than-expected 3.4% in March.
 
Gross Domestic Product

 
May 8, 2007—The labor market created 88,000 net new jobs in April as the unemployment rate inched up to 4.5%. Also, the ISM Index surged a surprising 3.8 points to 54.7 for the month. Personal income grew 0.7% in March, while the top-line PCE deflator rose 0.4%. Concurrently, factory orders increased 3.1%. Lastly, nonfarm business productivity rose a better-than-expected 1.7% during the 1^st quarter.

Results Are In!

In February, we asked for your opinions in our Speak Out! survey. Below are your responses. Look for future surveys and tell us what you think.

1. How would you describe the current economic environment for your business?

 
April 10, 2007—The labor market created 180,000 net new jobs in March while the unemployment rate fell to 4.4%. The ISM index fell to 50.9 in March but remains in expansionary territory. Factory orders increased 1.0% in February, rebounding from a 5.7% drop in January. Lastly, wholesale inventories increased 0.5% in February while sales grew 1.2%.

 
April 3, 2007—The GDP grew 2.5% in 4th quarter, a slight improvement for the 2.0% growth during the 3rd quarter. Personal income grew 0.6% in February while new home sales fell 3.9%. New orders for durable goods grew a weaker-than-expected 2.5% in February and lastly, the index of consumer confidence dropped 4.0 points in March, it's lowest reading since November 2006. 

 
April 17, 2007—The trade deficit narrowed by $0.4 billion to $58.4 billion in February, a 0.7% decline. Producer prices jumped 1.0% in March—driven by higher food and energy prices—while retail sales increased 0.7%. Lastly, business inventories rose 0.3% in February.

 
April 24, 2007—The top-line CPI rose a less-than-expected 0.6% in March, while the core CPI inched up just 0.1%. Concurrently, housing starts increased 0.8% to 1.518 million units but on a year-ago basis, starts are down 23.0%. Also, industrial production fell 0.2% in March, driven by weak utilities output and lastly, the Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.1%.

Dr. Martin Regalia

 
March 6, 2007—The GDP grew 2.2% in the 4th quarter and 3.3% for all of 2006. Sales of existing homes jumped 3.0% in January but new home sales plummeted 16.6%. Personal income gained a surprising 1.0% in January while consumption increased 0.5%. Lastly, the ISM index returned to expansionary territory in February, jumping to 52.3.

 
March 27, 2007—Housing starts rebounded slightly in February, increasing 9.0% to 1.525 million units after plunging 14.3% in January. Also, for the sixth straight meeting, FOMC kept the funds rate at 5.25%. Concurrently, existing home sales jumped 3.9% in February to 6.69 million units. Lastly, the Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators fell 0.5%.
 
New Residential Construction

 
March 13, 2007—The labor market created 97,000 net new jobs in February while the unemployment rate fell to 4.5%.  The trade deficit narrowed in January, decreasing 3.8% to $59.1 billion.  The deficit with China, however, jumped 12.0%.  Also non-farm business productivity rose 1.6% in the 4th quarter, rebounding from a 0.5% decline during the 3rd.  Lastly, factory orders plunged a larger-than-expected 5.6% in January.

 
March 20, 2007—The top-line consumer price index rose 0.4% in February while the core CPI increased a more moderate 0.2%. Also, the producer price index surged 1.3% while the core PPI rose 0.4%. Both top-line indices were driven by higher energy prices. Concurrently, industrial production soared a larger-than-expected 1.0% while retail sales inched up 0.1%. Lastly, business inventories increased 0.2%.

 
February 20, 2007—The trade deficit increased $3.1 billion to $61.2 billion in a December, a 5.3% jump. Retail sales remained unchanged in January while industrial production decreased a larger-than-expected 0.5%. Concurrently, the PPI for finished goods fell 0.6% in January, and the core PPI inched up 0.2%. Lastly, housing starts plummeted 14.3% to 1.408 million units.
 
International Trade

 
February 6, 2007—The GDP grew 3.5% in the 4th quarter and 3.4% for all of 2006. The labor market produced 111,000 net new jobs in January while the unemployment rate inched up to 4.6%. Also, for the fifth straight meeting, the FOMC kept the funds rate at 5.25%. Personal income and consumption increased in December 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively. Lastly, the ISM index fell to 49.3 in January, down from 51.4 in December.

 
So that the U.S. Chamber may continue representing small business effectively, we hope that you will voice your opinion regarding the challenges you currently face as part of the small-business community. Visit the Speak Out! section of our Web site and answer a few questions about your hiring plans, how fuel prices affect your company, and the challenges of attracting and retaining qualified, valuable employees.

Make your voice heard.

 
February 13, 2007—Total compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.8% in the 4th quarter, while non-farm business productivity jumped 3.0% during the same period. Consumer credit rose by $6.0 billion to $2.40 trillion in December, a 3.0% increase. Concurrently, wholesale inventories fell an unexpected 0.5%.
 
Employment Cost Index

 
February 27, 2007—The top-line consumer price index rose 0.2% in January while the core CPI increased 0.3%, slightly above expectations. The Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators grew 0.1%, a deceleration from the 0.6% rise in December. Lastly, business inventories remained unchanged in December while the inventory-to-sales ratio fell from 1.30 to 1.28.

Dr. Martin Regalia

 
January 16, 2007—The trade deficit narrowed in November, decreasing $0.6 billion to $58.2 billion. Retail sales posted a stronger-than-expected 0.9% gain in December. Consumer credit rose 6.2% to $2.39 trillion in November while wholesale inventories jumped 1.3%. Lastly, business inventories rose 0.4% in November.
 
International Trade

 
January 9, 2007—The labor market produced 167,000 net new jobs in December. The unemployment rate remained at 4.5% while workers' average hourly earnings increased 0.5%. Furthermore, total construction spending fell 0.2% in November, driven by a decrease in private construction spending. The ISM index increased to 51.4 in December and lastly, factory orders rose 0.9% in November, a slight rebound from the 4.5% plunge the previous month.

Results Are In!

In November, we asked for your opinions in our Speak Out! survey. Below are your responses. Look for future uschamber.com surveys, and remember that they give you an opportunity to tell us what you think.

1. How would you describe the current economic environment for your business?

 
January 23, 2007—The top-line CPI rose 0.5% in December while the core CPI, which excludes food and energy, inched up 0.2%. The PPI rose a higher-than-expected 0.9% in December, driven by higher energy prices. Concurrently, the core PPI increased just 0.2%. Industrial production was stronger-than-expected in December, rising 0.4%. Lastly, housing starts increased 4.5% to 1.642 million units.
 
Consumer Price Index

 
January 30, 2007—The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% in December following an unchanged reading in November. Existing home sales decreased 0.8% in December while new home sales surged 4.8%. Both existing and new home sales are down on a year-ago basis. Lastly, new orders for durable goods jumped a stronger-than-expected 3.1% in December.