Employment Report
Total nonfarm payrolls in September rose 103,000 after increasing by an upwardly revised 57,000 in August (originally reported as 0). July’s data was revised higher as well, to 127,000, from 85,000 (total revisions pushed total payrolls up by 99,000 over the previous two months.) Total private jobs increased by 137,000 in September. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.1%. Average weekly hours worked in September rose by 0.1 to 34.3 hours, and average hourly earnings for all employees rose $0.04. These numbers reduce the likelihood of a double dip recession; however, we will need to see substantially stronger growth if we are to make any headway at reemploying those who have lost their jobs during the downturn.

ISM Manufacturing Index
In September, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index rose 1.0 point to 51.6 from a reading of 50.6 in August.  Although the index remains well below its recent highs, it has remained above the threshold of 50, which is the indicator for an expanding economy. New orders did not increase this month, but the other components, including production, employment, and exports, were stronger.  As the economy gradually improves, we expect business confidence to strengthen.

ISM Nonmanufacturing IndexIn September, the Institute for Supply Management’s nonmanufacturing index fell to 53.0 from 53.3 in August. Although the survey showed a modest decline, the index remains above the threshold of 50 for an expanding economy. Moreover, all but three of the index components were above 50 as well. We are seeing signs that while the economy is improving, demand is not growing much beyond current levels.