Personal Income
In May, personal income rose 0.3% for the second straight month. Real disposable income increased 0.1% after falling 0.1% in April. Real spending growth declined 0.1% amid a slowdown in automotive purchases. As a result, the personal saving rate increased to 5.0% from 4.9% in April. The price index for personal consumption expenditures rose 0.2% in May. Over the past year the index is up 2.5%. The core price index rose 0.3% in May and 1.2% over the past year. There is not much sign of inflation in the current data, but there also isn’t much consumption either. As incomes improve and households continue to improve their balance sheets we expect consumption to rebound a bit.

ISM Manufacturing
The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index rebounded slightly in June to 55.3 from 53.5 in May. Most components in June’s report improved, including the employment and new orders indexes. The report is consistent with an expanding economy, albeit at a slower pace from the start of the year. This report suggests that the economy is improving faster and has been able to work through the disruptions in the supply chain faster than expected.

Consumer Confidence
The Conference Board index of consumer confidence fell in June to 58.5 from 61.7 in May, its second straight decline. The expectations component declined to 72.4 from 76.7 and the present conditions component fell to 37.6 from 39.3. The confluence of recent events, such as high oil prices, weak housing and labor markets, and recent declines in the stock market has dampened the economic outlook and made consumers less eager to spend.