The Chamber's Doha Trade Delegation just concluded our visit to Geneva, which followed our stop earlier this week in Brussels. Of course, Geneva is the home of the World Trade Organization (WTO). This month marks the 2 year (forgettable) anniversary of the failed ministerial. I was at that ministerial, the longest ever WTO ministerial, representing the Chamber. Everyone remembers the dramatic collapse and blame game that followed. 2 years later, things have changed and yet stayed the same. On substance, we have a ways to go but Doha's death has been greatly exaggerated many times before. However, 2011 is a realistic window of opportunity and our trip to Geneva confirmed that.

Over the course of the past few days we met with a wide range of key players in the talks: WTO Director General and Lead Doha Sherpa Pascal Lamy, new U.S. Ambassador Michael Punke and his team, and Ambassadors from Brazil, China, South Africa, Australia, New Zealand, Colombia, Malaysia plus the Charge D' Affairs of the EU. If people recall, the U.S. did not have an Ambassador in place all of last year (and I heard a lot of criticism of that fact on my last 2 visits here in 2009). No one is making the same stink about the fact that the EU does not have an Ambassador here and likely won't till later this year.

Michael Punke got high marks from everyone we met with. He has hit the ground running since he arrived a few months ago. More than anything, Punke has truly challenged the status quo in the negotiations and these efforts will surely bear fruit down the road. We strongly support his efforts to shore up the ambition in the Round so we have a credible package we can take back and sell to Congress. We CAN sell such a package, but we can't sell what is on the table from that failed Ministerial 2 years ago. The Chamber's trip to Geneva proved that we are putting our money where our mouth is by showing up and demonstrating that we are committed to a successful outcome. Where are business communities from other countries?

There are a few developments that have helped change the dynamics in Doha (in a positive way). First, the G20 Summit in Toronto was the first time there was a substantive discussion on Doha by Leaders, including President Obama. They talked substance for the first time and the communiqué that instead of  setting another artificial deadline, it empowered negotiators in Geneva to build up what's on the table right now. The other significant development is that everyone in Geneva now sees that the trade train is starting to move in Washington which of course was not the case last year. The announcement by the Administration that it wants to resolve outstanding issues in the Korea FTA helps build the case that the U.S. is serious about trade (and doubling exports!!). This was mentioned in many of our meetings. Movement on the Korea FTA, and hopefully Colombia and Panama, can help lay the groundwork for Doha.

2011 is a unique window of opportunity to take care of the unfinished trade agenda. Our trip to Geneva reaffirmed that it's possible to get a Doha deal in 2011. The Chamber is ready to push to make it happen. The Administration should seize the opportunity to make it happen. If not, it will be hard to keep business groups like the Chamber interested in the Doha Round.

More interestingly, 2011 would also make the prediction of my old boss Frank Vargo at the NAM come true:

Tokyo Round took 6 Years
Uruguay Round took 8 Years

Do the math, 6-8-10

Doha was launched in 2001+10=2011.

Business is ready to pick up the pressure to build some momentum and make it a reality. Let's get an ambitious and balanced Doha agreement done in 2011.  No reason it can't be done. The excuses are running out.

Doha in 2011 or Bust.