"Greecing" the Skids for the Volcker Rule
This week, the European Union Finance Ministers met to deal with the Greek financial crisis. While the Greek crisis has potentially enormous financial and political ramifications, the E.U. Ministers decided to put off any action for 30 days.
The E.U. ministers did manage to take time out of their weighty deliberations to opine on the much publicized Volcker Rule. In a statement the ministers said,
"[m]embers expressed their concerns that the Volcker rule in the E.U. may not be consistent with the current principles of internal market and universal banking."
Historically, European nations have not separated commercial and investment banking activities. While the United States did so following the passage of the Glass-Steagall legislation during the Depression, those restrictions were lifted in the late 1990’s to allow that American financial services sector to operate on par with global competitors.
Paul Volcker has put his finger on problems that need to be addressed in restoring stability to the financial markets. The Volcker Rule may be too restrictive in limiting the activities that firms need to engage in and based on the E.U. response may place American firms at a competitive disadvantage. Capital requirements may be a tool that can provide stabilizing features, while allowing for pro-growth and job creation strategies.
The Volcker Rule has also received a cool reception in Congress, particularly in statements issues by Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd. One of the complaints is that the proposal was sprung very late in the debate and drafting of financial regulatory reform legislation. With the whirlwind of on-again, off-again, on-again bi-partisan negotiations, it is difficult to handicap if Congress will undertake serious consideration.
Nonetheless, it appears that businesses are hedging their bets. It was reported in this morning’s Heard on the Street column in the Wall Street Journal that J.P. Morgan scaled back an investment for Sempra Energy’s joint trading venture with the Royal Bank of Scotland. J.P. Morgan stepped back from a $4 billion outright purchase of the business and instead only invested a $1.7 billion stake in the profitable trading entity because of regulatory uncertainty posed by the Volcker Rule. Apparently, J.P. Morgan is concerned that the imposition of the Volcker Rule would prohibit it from engaging in the trading that this venture engages in.
It seems that we have the E.U.’s answer, while we don’t know where Congress will land. Not the type of situation that gives the certainty needed for businesses to go out, invest and create jobs.
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