On Monday the EPA released a preliminary economic analysis of the Waxman-Markey Discussion Draft,  the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 -- WSJ coverage here. I'm sure this phrase: "the cap-and-trade policy has a relatively modest impact on U.S. consumers," will be used quite frequently over the coming months, so let me surround it with some others from executive summary.

While the WM Draft does have four specific titles, the preliminary EPA analysis has focused on Title III, "Reducing Global Warming Pollution," which establishes a cap-and-trade program for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The short turnaround time for EPA’s analysis has prevented analysis of other provisions, such as the renewable energy, energy efficiency standards, and transportation provisions.

Assuming that the bulk of the revenues from the program are returned to households, the cap-and-trade policy has a relatively modest impact on U.S. consumers...This estimate reflects the assumption made in this analysis that most revenues from the program would be returned to consumers in a lump-sum rebate, enabling consumers to decide how best to use the value created in the program. Returning the revenues in this fashion could make the median household, and those living at lower ends of the income distribution, better off than they would be without the program. However, a policy that failed to return these revenues to consumers would lead to substantially larger losses in consumption.

In other words, we didn't look at everything and as an energy policy, this bill makes a great welfare program.