Morning News - Consumer Bailout Edition

Feb 10, 2009

In his first televised press conference as president last night, Mr. Obama said his stimulus bill has attracted diverse support:

"It is a plan that is already supported by businesses representing almost every industry in America; by both the Chamber of Commerce and the AFL-CIO."

As expected, he underscored the need to pass the bill quickly, even if it is not perfect. He demonstrated there were limits to his bipartisanship, saying repeatedly he didn’t think he had to take criticism on his spending plans from anyone who supported President Bush’s policies that ran up the deficit.

Recent polls show Obama is more popular than his stimulus bill. CNN puts his approval rating at a whopping 76% -- most other major polls put it in the low 60s. Fifty-four percent support the stimulus legislation.

Nonetheless, support for the bill seems to be eroding, not increasing, and Obama knows he might be in trouble when he can’t even count on the support of Harvard economist Robert Barro, who told Atlantic magazine:

"This is probably the worst bill that has been put forward since the 1930s. I don't know what to say. I mean it's wasting a tremendous amount of money. It has some simplistic theory that I don't think will work, so I don't think the expenditure stuff is going to have the intended effect. I don't think it will expand the economy. And the tax cutting isn't really geared toward incentives. It's not really geared to lowering tax rates; it's more along the lines of throwing money at people. On both sides I think it's garbage."

This morning Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will outline the administration’s comprehensive economic recovery package. Focus continues to center on how the plan might employ private capital, perhaps as investments in a so-called bad bank. Obama economic advisor Larry Summers said yesterday:

"Government capital is a last resort, and wherever possible, we want to catalyze the private sector to take responsibility for a situation that in many ways was created in the private sector. If government's going to be putting money at risk, wherever possible, we want to make sure that somebody in the private sector is willing to take the same risk the taxpayers are being asked to take."

The New York Times reports that Geithner won several arguments with Obama’s top political aides. Geithner successfully opposed tougher conditions on financial institutions, including more severe limits on executive pay than have already been discussed, dictating to banks how they could spend their rescue money, and a requirement to replace bank executives and wipe out shareholders at institutions receiving aid.

Using government data, Bloomberg has calculated the government's total financial commitment to help the economy -- $9.7 trillion, or enough to pay off more than 90% of the nation’s home mortgages. The promises are composed of about $1 trillion in stimulus packages, around $3 trillion in lending and spending, and $5.7 trillion in agreements to provide aid. The economic downturn has erased $14.5 trillion, or 33%, of the value of the world's companies since Sept. 15.

A growing number of big companies are taking advantage of the thawing credit markets to raise large sums of money at low interest rates, according to The Wall Street Journal. Yesterday Cisco Systems sold $4 billion in bonds in anticipation of making acquisitions; Unilever raised $1.5 billion in five and 10 year bonds. Since the beginning of the year, U.S. companies have sold $78 billion of investment-grade corporate bonds that aren't guaranteed through a government program, according to research firm Dealogic.


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