A few Q3 trade facts, prepared by the U.S. Chamber based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau/Bureau of Economic Analysis

Exports have made the difference between slow growth and sharp recession for the U.S. economy over the past year.  Net exports contributed 1.4% to GDP growth over the past four quarters (October 2007 – September 2008), a period when GDP expanded by 0.8%.  U.S. GDP would have contracted by 0.6% over the past year without the strong contribution of exports. 

In the third quarter of 2008 alone, exports drove GDP upwards by 1.1%, while overall GDP contracted by 0.3%.  U.S. exports rose by 5.9% and imports decreased 1.9% in the third quarter.  In the second quarter, trade added 2.9% to GDP; exports in that period were 12.3% higher and imports fell by 7.3%.

For 2008, the United States is on track to retain its title as the world’s largest exporter, with exports of goods and services approaching $2 trillion:

• Exports of manufactured goods and other merchandise are expected to reach $1.4 trillion in 2008.  The United States now has a trade surplus in manufactured goods with its 14 free-trade agreement partners. 

• Services exports for 2008 are on track to surpass $500 billion, with the U.S. trade surplus in services reaching well above $100 billion.

• Agricultural exports for 2008 are projected by the U.S. Department of Agriculture to break records and pass the $100 billion mark for the first time.

The U.S. trade deficit for January – August 2008 was approximately $7 billion higher than in the corresponding period in 2007.  However, the non-petroleum goods deficit fell by $70 billion relative to the corresponding period in 2007, while the U.S. trade deficit in petroleum products increased $100 billion in this period.  Since 2002, rising imports of petroleum products have accounted for more than 90% of the increase in the U.S. trade deficit. 

Trade Highlights for the First Half of 2008

• The United States exported a record $926 billion in goods and services during the first half of 2008, an increase of 18% over the first half of 2007.

• Exports of manufactured goods reached $337 billion, an increase of 21% from the same time period in 2007.  U.S. imports of manufactures rose by 14%.

• Services exports grew $37 billion in the first half of 2008 over the first half of 2007, reaching $272 billion for the first two quarters.  The U.S. had a trade surplus in services for these two quarters of $70 billion.

• Agricultural exports reached $78 billion in the first two quarters of 2008; this represents an increase of $24 billion or 44% over the same period last year.

• The U.S. trade deficit as a percentage of GDP declined in the first two quarters of 2008 to 5%, down from 5.3% during the same period in 2007.

Much more trade data can be found in our handy, easily emailed, PDF version.