The Earnings Guidance Game

Sep 18, 2008

I was in New York yesterday to attend, and participate in, a symposium on earnings guidance, communications, and long-term value creation. Former SEC Chair Donaldson and Robert Pozen were on hand to keynote best practices. Program partners were the Aspen Institute Business & Society Program, Bloomberg, Business Roundtable Institute for Corporate Ethics, CFA Institute Centre for Financial Market Integrity, Committee for Economic Development, National Investor Relations Institute, and U.S. Chamber of Commerce Center for Capital Markets Competitiveness.

The consortium (which the chamber is a key member) was able to bring together corporate management, the analyst community, investors and the media in a wide ranging discussion on short-termism. This and specifically earnings guidance have been top priorities as witnessed by Tom Donohue’s speech in 2005 and the Capital Markets Commission report in 2007. While acknowledging that short-termism encompasses other issues, earnings guidance is a major symptom of the disease. Movement on earnings guidance will reflect a shift in mindset that will lead to further progress overall.

While it is true that there may not be one single avenue to resolving the issue of short-termism, there is a reason that some adages become old adages, and during my panel I used one of the oldest ones:  "A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step."  The quarterly earnings guidance game allows perceptions of short term performance to become the reality of company value. Greater communication across issuer, analyst and media groups -- the all important first step -- will increase long-term innovation and value creation in the U.S. capital markets.

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