Trade, Jobs, and Compensation

Jun 16, 2008

In recent years, some politicians and pundits have charged that trade is harmful to the American worker.  In short, these voices allege that trade has destroyed American jobs, undermined manufacturers, and pushed wages down.  There is no need for lofty rhetoric in defense of trade, the facts, statistics, and some context on the performance of the U.S. economy over the past fifteen years, speak quite clearly:

Trade

  • U.S. world trade has tripled to nearly four trillion dollars:  U.S. trade with the world tripled between 1993 and 2007.  In this period, U.S. trade in goods and services rose from $1.4 trillion to just under $4 trillion.  U.S. exports during this period increased by over 150%, rising from $643 billion to $1.6 trillion.  Each day, the United States conducts nearly $11 billion in trade.  (Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce)
  • The United States is the world's leading exporter:  While Germany and China lead in merchandise exports (manufactures and agricultural products), the U.S. still leads the world in total exports.  In 2007, the United States exported $1.6 trillion in goods and services.  (Source: World Trade Organization)
  • Economic growth has been strong:  While tracing the implications of NAFTA and the WTO for U.S. economic growth is difficult, it's more difficult to say they hurt it.  Since January 1, 1994, U.S. GDP has expanded by 54%. (Source: International Monetary Fund)

Employment

  • More than 27 million new jobs:  U.S. employment has risen from 111 million in 1993 to 138 million in 2007.  This represents an increase of more than 27 million jobs, or a 24% expansion in the number of Americans working.  (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
  • Unemployment has declined:  By the historical standards of the past four decades, U.S. unemployment has been relatively low in the years since January 1994.  In 1994-2007, U.S. unemployment averaged 5.1%.  This compares with an average rate of 7.1% during 1982-1993. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
  • NAFTA and the WTO didn't do this, but they certainly didn't hurt:  Did NAFTA and the WTO lead to the creation of 27 million jobs or reduce unemployment by two percentage points?  No.  During a time of dramatic changes in the U.S. economy, it is difficult to trace their impact on the job market.  But lower foreign trade barriers certainly fostered growth in export-oriented jobs, and such jobs generally pay 15-20% higher wages than those that aren't tied to exports.  (Source: Office of the U.S. Trade Representative)

Compensation

  • U.S. workers' real compensation has risen:  While critics of NAFTA and the WTO say they have suppressed wages, growth in real compensation - wages plus benefits - has risen notably since 1993.  In the case of manufacturing workers, for instance, average real compensation grew at an average annual rate of 1.3% from 1993 to 2007, compared to 0.8% annually between 1979 and 1993.  (Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
  • Most growth in compensation has gone to benefits:  Real wages have been relatively stagnant over the past decade, but total compensation has not.  As the Cato Institute's Daniel Ikenson writes, citing BEA data, "Benefits continue to be a large part of manufacturing compensation, and total compensation has been rising since the [2001] recession.  For manufacturing workers, real wages increased by a total of 4 percent between 2001 and 2005, while real benefits increased by 42 percent.  Compensation for manufacturing workers was up 11 percent, as opposed to 6 percent for the economy as a whole."  (Source: Cato Institute, "Thriving in a Global Economy," August 2007)

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